| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | St. Francis (PA) | 29-0 | 1233.5 | +0.0 | 1233.5 | 17.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Alabama | 0-73 | 1233.5 | -2.4 | 1231.1 | 3.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | UTEP | 31-25 | 1231.1 | +43.6 | 1274.7 | 56.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 28-16 | 1274.7 | +44.0 | 1318.7 | 40.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Northwestern | 7-42 | 1318.7 | -17.9 | 1300.8 | 26.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 8-23 | 1300.8 | -30.0 | 1270.8 | 42.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Troy | 14-37 | 1270.8 | -20.4 | 1250.4 | 18.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 21-49 | 1250.4 | -24.3 | 1226.1 | 35.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 6-31 | 1226.1 | -19.0 | 1207.1 | 17.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | South Alabama | 14-26 | 1207.1 | -43.3 | 1163.8 | 43.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Texas State | 14-31 | 1163.8 | -13.9 | 1149.9 | 21.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Louisiana | 27-30 | 1149.9 | -9.1 | 1140.8 | 14.1% |